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Extreme heat is a killer. A recent heat wave shows how much more deadly it’s becoming
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Extreme heat is a killer and its impact is becoming far, far deadlier as the human-caused climate crisis supercharges temperatures, according to a new study, which estimates global warming tripled the number of deaths in the recent European heat wave.

For more than a week, temperatures in many parts of Europe spiked above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Tourist attractions closed, wildfires ripped through several countries, and people struggled to cope on a continent where air conditioning is rare.
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The outcome was deadly. Thousands of people are estimated to have lost their lives, according to a first-of-its-kind rapid analysis study published Wednesday.

A team of researchers, led by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, looked at 10 days of extreme heat between June 23 and July 2 across 12 European cities, including London, Paris, Athens, Madrid and Rome.

They used historical weather data to calculate how intense the heat would have been if humans had not burned fossil fuels and warmed the world by 1.3 degrees Celsius. They found climate change made Europe’s heat wave 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 7.2 Fahrenheit) hotter.

The scientists then used research on the relationship between heat and daily deaths to estimate how many people lost their lives.

They found approximately 2,300 people died during ten days of heat across the 12 cities, around 1,500 more than would have died in a world without climate change. In other words, global heating was responsible for 65% of the total death toll.

“The results show how relatively small increases in the hottest temperatures can trigger huge surges in death,” the study authors wrote.

Heat has a particularly pernicious impact on people with underlying health conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes and respiratory problems.

People over 65 years old were most affected, accounting for 88% of the excess deaths, according to the analysis. But heat can be deadly for anyone. Nearly 200 of the estimated deaths across the 12 cities were among those aged 20 to 65.

Climate change was responsible for the vast majority of heat deaths in some cities. In Madrid, it accounted for about 90% of estimated heat wave deaths, the analysis found.

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Today was supposed to be the day that President Donald Trump’s so-called “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries kicked in after a three-month delay, absent trade deals. But their introduction has been postponed, again.

The new, August 1 deadline prolongs uncertainty for businesses but also gives America’s trading partners more time to strike trade deals with the United States, avoiding the hefty levies.
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Mainstream economists would probably cheer that outcome. Most have long disliked tariffs and can point to research showing they harm the countries that impose them, including the workers and consumers in those economies. And although they also recognize the problems free trade can create, high tariffs are rarely seen as the solution.
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Trump’s tariffs so far have not meaningfully boosted US inflation, slowed the economy or hurt jobs growth. Inflation is “the dog that didn’t bark,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent likes to say. But economists argue inflation and jobs will have a delayed reaction to tariffs that could start to get ugly toward the end of the year, and that the current calm before the impending storm has provided the administration with a false sense of security.

“The positives (of free trade) outweigh the negatives, even in rich countries,” Antonio Fatas, an economics professor at business school INSEAD, told CNN. “I think in the US, the country has benefited from being open, Europe has benefited from being open.”

Consumers lose out
Tariffs are taxes on imports and their most direct typical effect is to drive up costs for producers and prices for consumers.

Around half of all US imports are purchases of so-called intermediate products, needed to make finished American goods, according to data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

“If you look at a Boeing aircraft, or an automobile manufactured in the US or Canada… it’s really internationally sourced,” Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College, said on the EconTalk podcast in May. And when American businesses have to pay more for imported components, it raises their costs, he added.

Likewise, tariffs raise the cost of finished foreign goods for their American importers.

“Then they have to pass that on to consumers in most instances, because they don’t have deep pockets where they can just absorb a 10 or 20 or 30% tariff,” Irwin said.